A Vision Twenty-Five Years in the Making

As someone who involved in the early groundwork that helped establish the Great Ethiopian Run, I have seen the event grow from an ambitious idea into one of Africa’s leading mass participation road races. From the beginning, the Great Ethiopian Run was built with a clear intention. It was not created as a one-day event, but as a sustainable business venture capable of influencing national culture and turning running into a way of life for millions.

Haile Gebrselassie provided an inspirational foundation, elevating the pride of the country on international stages and helping to define running as part of our identity. Richard Nerurkar brought professionalism and an unwavering work ethic that shaped the organization. His discipline and strategic clarity influenced all of us who worked there. Dagmawit Amare carried the event into institutional maturity by offering stability, operational precision, and strong leadership. These individuals created more than an event. They created a national institution that continues to inspire and unite the country.

Meaning Making and Sponsorship

Society creates meaning of activities, objects, and actions through practice, norms, and tradition. Yet the meaning that society assigns does not always reflect the true nature of a thing. As the saying goes, the world is not what it is, but what you are. In the same way, the concept of sponsorship is ill-defined and widely misunderstood in our society. Many people describe sponsorship as a gift, philanthropy, or a donation. In reality, these acts fall under corporate social responsibility. They are not sponsorship.

True sponsorship is an investment made with the expectation of measurable return. Sponsorship is, at its core, a business transaction. Whether the investment is in cash or in kind, it is made in an event (e.g., Great Ethiopian Run), individual (e.g., Haile and Adidas), or any other property (e.g., a league, a national team, a global event, a venue) with the expectation of receiving marketing objectives in return (e.g., exposure, educating, image building, sales). When a sponsor provides money, products, or services, the intention is to reach the property audience, whether fans, participants, or customers, and to advance the sponsors’ business objectives.

Sponsorship typically follows a four-stage communication and marketing process. The first stage is awareness or exposure, which focuses on making the audience aware that the sponsor or its brand exists. The second stage is knowledge or education, where audiences learn about the sponsors’ product, service, or brand. The third stage is image building or brand enhancement, where the partnership helps shape or improve the audiences’ perception of the sponsor. The final stage is reciprocity or sales, where the ultimate goal is to drive consumer action, loyalty, and purchasing behavior. For any sponsor, the bottom line is sales, and each stage along this continuum is designed to move toward that outcome. Different sponsors enter partnerships seeking different outcomes along this continuum. For example, when Rakuten sponsors the US basketball team Golden State Warriors, the primary objective is to create brand awareness Rakuten and to enter the American market.

And, people may go to school to learn, and they may read books, articles, and scholarly work to understand the subject matter of sponsorship or any other matter. But in my view, Ethiopian sport organizations do not need to search far for examples of sponsorship excellence. The textbook is already in front of them. All they need to do is study what the Great Ethiopian Run has been doing for twenty-five years.

The Significance of Bank of America Partnership

There is a well understood concept in sponsorship known as the reverse image effect. When an established global brand aligns itself with a property, the credibility and strength of the sponsor are transferred to the property in a meaningful way. The involvement of Bank of America offers exactly that type of elevation to the Great Ethiopian Run. This partnership immediately enhances the brand value of the event, strengthens its credibility, and creates opportunities for future commercial growth.

The implications go far beyond the Great Ethiopian Run itself. This partnership signals to the entire Ethiopian sporting sector that global brands are ready to invest when an organization demonstrates professionalism, structure, and clear commercial value. It is an invitation for every sport in the country, including football, basketball, volleyball, athletics, and others, to ask what they need to change in order to attract partnerships of this scale.

Football and the Urgent Need for Reform

For almost two years, two years back, I led and authored a deep and comprehensive study commissioned by the Ethiopian Premier League to examine the multi-dimensional development of football in the country. The study is presented in a three-hundred-and-seventy-page document that draws on the experiences of more than one hundred and forty countries. It incorporates interviews with nearly ninety individuals from fifteen different but direct stakeholder of Ethiopian football (e.g., the federation leaders, coaches, players, agents, journalists, sport professors, etc.). It includes an analysis of national, continental, and FIFA’s policy frameworks and is supported by more than two hundred scholarly sources.

The findings are clear and consistent. Football in Ethiopia is financially unsustainable under its current model. Most Premier League clubs rely entirely on local government budgets. The most conservative estimate shows that clubs spend around seventy-five million birr every year, and about seventy five percent of that amount goes directly to salaries, and rest to transport, accommodation. Very little remains for infrastructure, development, marketing, or long-term growth. This is not a sustainable way to build a sport industry. It is similar to pouring water on sand.

A Homegrown Solution Based on Community Ownership

The most important solution that emerged from the study is a homegrown community based ownership model. This model reflects what Ethiopian sport policy already states, that the role of the government is to facilitate development and that the community should own the clubs.

Under the commissioned study’s recommendation, club ownership would be divided among registered fans, the public, and the government in a structure of thirty percent, forty percent, and thirty percent, suggested based on empirical data. The term public is not abstract. It includes local business owners, residents of the area who are not necessarily registered fans, owners of small hotels or motels, teachers, banks, universities, beer factories, and members of the diaspora. In the long term it can also include responsible foreign investors. This model promotes accountability and makes it possible for qualified sport business managers to lead the clubs. If they do not perform, the community can replace them without depending on political structures or government budgets. This approach opens the door for bright sport managers, investment, commercial growth, and genuine development. It is aligned with global best practices and, more importantly, it is built on the cultural and economic realities of Ethiopia.

The Textbook Is Already Here

Sport organizations in Ethiopia do not need to travel abroad or search for complex concepts to understand how to build a successful sporting property. The example is already here at home. The Great Ethiopian Run shows, in practice, what professionalism, clear governance, community engagement, and commercial discipline can achieve over time. It has done what many clubs and federations are still struggling to do. It has turned a local idea into a national institution and an attractive global partner.

The Great Ethiopian Run operates in the same economic and political environment as other Ethiopian sport organizations. It faces the same infrastructure constraints and the same market realities. Yet its choices have been different. It has treated sport as a business, sponsorship as an investment, and the public as a community of participants and partners rather than as passive observers. In doing so, it has applied in real life the very principles that many try to learn from books and international case studies.

The event has become a model of sponsorship excellence by understanding the continuum from awareness and knowledge to image building and, ultimately, to reciprocity and sales. It has delivered value to sponsors, not as charity or philanthropy, but as a return on investment. The recent partnership with Bank of America is not a coincidence. It is a logical outcome of two and a half decades of credible delivery, professional management, and consistent brand building.

For federations, leagues, and clubs that still depend almost entirely on government budgets, the lesson is simple and powerful. Instead of pouring resources into structures that do not generate long term value, they can study how the Great Ethiopian Run plans, negotiates, delivers, and measures its partnerships. It is difficult to imagine a clearer lesson for the rest of Ethiopian sport. The textbook is not in a foreign capital. It is on the streets of Addis Ababa every year when tens of thousands of people take part in the Great Ethiopian Run.

A Moment for Reflection and Celebration

As the Great Ethiopian Run celebrates its twenty fifth year, it also delivers a national lesson. When a sporting organization is managed with integrity, discipline, and commercial vision, the world takes notice. The partnership with Bank of America is evidence of that. It is more than a sponsorship agreement. It is a validation of two decades of work and a roadmap for the future of Ethiopian sport.

So, what is the implication of all of this? Back in 2006, while studying Sport Management at in England (an opportunity that I got through the Great Ethiopian Run connections), I wrote an article titled “Everyone Is a Winner in the Great Ethiopian Run.” Even then, it was clear to me that the Great Ethiopian Run was far more than a road race. Its sporting, health, societal, historical, political, economic, and cultural significance is profound.  The Great Ethiopian Run has become a national institution, one that unites people, inspires generations, stimulates the economy, elevates our global image, and reinforces running as part of our cultural identity. Its influence is woven into the fabric of modern Ethiopian life. For this reason, the country must continue to treasure, celebrate, and honor the leaders who envisioned it, built it, protected it, and elevated it to its present level. Their work is not ordinary. It is nation building.

A Well-Deserved Congratulations

I want to express my deepest appreciation to the visionary living legend Haile Gebrselassie. His accomplishments on the track and on the road lifted our flag to the highest stages and made our national anthem echo through some of the world’s greatest arenas. Yet his legacy extends far beyond medals and victories. He transformed running into a national lifestyle, a cultural identity, and a unifying force for Ethiopia. His influence helped lay the foundation for what the Great Ethiopian Run has become.

I am fortunate to have been among a handful of people involved in the earliest years of establishing the Great Ethiopian Run. Building a foundation is important, but sustaining it for twenty-five years, growing it, and elevating it to where it stands today requires vision, discipline, and relentless dedication. What the Great Ethiopian Run has achieved did not happen by chance. It is the result of leadership and commitment at the highest level. For this reason, I extend my sincere admiration and congratulations to Richard Nerurkar. His leadership and strategic vision have guided the event through its most formative stages. His belief in the potential of Ethiopian running and his unyielding work ethic shaped the Great Ethiopian Run into one of the most respected and influential sporting events on the African continent.

I thank Dagmawit Amare for guiding and sustaining the organization during its years of significant growth. And I welcome Bank of America for placing trust in this remarkable event. This partnership marks the beginning of a new chapter. May the rest of our sporting institutions look inward, learn from this example, and take decisive steps toward a more sustainable and prosperous future for Ethiopian sport.

Gashaw Abeza (PhD) is an Associate Professor of Sport Business Management at Towson University (Maryland, USA). He was involved in the early foundation years of the Great Ethiopian Run, an experience that later inspired him to establish the Grand African Run in the United States, now in its seventh year. Gashaw is the author of the widely circulated book Sport Sponsorship Insights. He advises sport organizations around the world on sport business strategy and teaches senior level courses on sponsorship and sport marketing. He also supervises doctoral students at Munich Business School (Germany) on topics related to sport business.

Contributed by Gashaw Zergaw Abeza (PhD)

What is Tokenizing Debt?

Tokenizing debt converts traditional financial instruments such as Treasury Bills, Notes, and Bonds into digital tokens on a blockchain, a secure and decentralized ledger. Each token represents part or full ownership of the underlying asset. At the core of this system is the IOU, or “I Owe You,” which formalizes the debt a government owes its creditors. In the United States, these IOUs form the foundation of the world’s largest sovereign debt market. As of late 2025, the US gross federal debt exceeds USD 36 trillion—the result of decades of borrowing.

Digital currencies are a crucial part of this process. Unlike traditional money, they exist solely online and include cryptocurrencies, stablecoins, and central bank digital currencies. Stablecoins are particularly important because they maintain a stable value compared to fiat currency or other assets, often backed by reserves such as Treasuries, fiat, or gold. Blockchain technology records every transaction across multiple computers, ensuring transparency, security, and traceability. Smart contracts, which are self-executing codes built into the blockchain, automatically enforce ownership rules, interest payments, and redemption schedules. This reduces reliance on middlemen, minimizes errors, and speeds up the transaction process.

In the United States, tokenized Treasury securities are already reshaping the USD 36 trillion debt market, combining government-backed stability with the efficiency of blockchain. This approach demonstrates how traditional debt can be digitized while maintaining security and investor confidence.

“Trust is the currency of the future.”

The Promise of Tokenization: Expanding Access and Opportunity

Tokenization offers far more than technical innovation; it has the potential to transform how finance works. By converting debt into digital tokens, Ethiopia could broaden investor access and create a more inclusive financial system. Small-scale investors, from farmers in Hawassa to students in Bahir Dar, could participate in government debt markets using mobile apps. This inclusivity allows citizens to become stakeholders in national development while deepening public engagement in economic growth.

It also diversifies the creditor base, reducing reliance on domestic banks and mitigating systemic risks. Smart contracts automate payments and compliance, increasing trust and reliability. In the US, tokenized Treasuries already support stablecoins and decentralized finance platforms. Ethiopia could leverage tokenized T-Bills to stabilize local markets and attract international investment, building a more resilient economy.

Tokenization also streamlines traditional processes that are often slow and dependent on multiple intermediaries. Blockchain enables near-instant settlements, immutable records, and automated management, reducing errors and operational costs. By providing verifiable audit trails, it strengthens transparency and accountability.

Diversifying Risk, Strengthening Resilience

Tokenization’s global reach diversifies Ethiopia’s creditor base, reducing reliance on domestic banks and mitigating systemic risks. Smart contracts — self-executing blockchain programs — automate interest payments, redemptions, and compliance, minimizing errors and building trust. In the United States, tokenized Treasuries anchor stablecoins and decentralized finance (DeFi) protocols. Ethiopia could similarly use tokenized T-Bills to stabilize local markets and attract international funds, creating a more resilient financial system.

“The greatest danger in times of turbulence is not the turbulence, it is to act with yesterday’s logic.” — Peter Drucker

Efficiency and Transparency

Traditional debt issuance and settlement in Ethiopia are slow, complex, and heavily reliant on intermediaries, increasing both costs and risks. Blockchain enables near-instant settlements, immutable transaction records, and automated processes. In the United States, these features have reduced operational costs and boosted investor confidence. For Ethiopia, tokenization could streamline debt management, reduce errors, and provide verifiable audit trails, fostering accountability.

A Democratic Financial Future

Tokenized debt goes beyond technical upgrades; it fosters financial democracy. When citizens can invest directly in government debt, they gain a stake in national success. Such financial democracy also reinforces public trust by ensuring transparency in how national debt is managed. By enabling broad participation, Ethiopia could build an economy where growth is shared, aligning financial systems with public empowerment.

“The small landholders are the most precious part of a state.” — Thomas Jefferson

Navigating Challenges

The US experience highlights risks Ethiopia must manage carefully. Cybersecurity threats to smart contracts and digital wallets require robust safeguards. Regulatory uncertainty could undermine investor confidence, making clear guidance from the National Bank of Ethiopia essential. Public trust is equally important and can be fostered through education campaigns that demystify digital finance.

Around-the-clock trading could amplify volatility, as seen in US stress tests. Geopolitically, tokenization may enhance Ethiopia’s role in global finance, but competitors like China could introduce alternative digital systems that challenge dollar dominance.

A Roadmap for Ethiopia

To harness tokenization, Ethiopia should develop regulations for blockchain-based assets, ensuring compliance with securities laws, foster collaboration between the Ministry of Finance, National Bank of Ethiopia, and Fintech innovators to build secure platforms, invest in digital infrastructure, including wallets, digital IDs, and payment gateways. Educate the public to build trust and literacy in digital finance.

A pilot program tokenizing short-term T-Bills could serve as a low-risk starting point, allowing regulators to refine systems before scaling up.

Conclusion

The US experiment with tokenized debt offers Ethiopia a blueprint for financial transformation. By embracing blockchain, Ethiopia can expand funding sources, empower investors, diversify risks, and enhance transparency. This is not just about modernizing markets—it is about building an inclusive, resilient economy where every citizen has a stake.

“The illiterate of the 21st century will not be those who cannot read and write, but those who cannot learn, unlearn, and relearn.” — Alvin Toffler

Contributed by Cherenet Daba

Peace constitutes the hidden infrastructure of the Blue Nile and indeed of all rivers worldwide whose long-term sustainability is inseparable from the ecological integrity of their watersheds.

For centuries, Egypt’s approach to the Nile has been shaped by a mindset of dominance rather than cooperation. Successive Egyptian governments have regarded the river as an exclusive lifeline and pursued strategies that sought to weaken Ethiopia the very source of roughly 85 percent of the Nile’s waters. Instead of embracing basin wide cooperation to strengthen upstream stewardship, Cairo has often invested in destabilizing Ethiopia politically, economically, and diplomatically. The result was a tragic miscalculation. An unstable Ethiopia is not a reliable guardian of the Nile’s headwaters. When Ethiopia is weakened, the Blue Nile itself becomes ecologically insecure.

Destabilization has hydrological consequences. The erosion of peace in Ethiopia’s highlands translates directly into the erosion of soil. When communities are displaced or preoccupied by conflict, environmental stewardship collapses. The research stations monitoring water and soil are abandoned; afforestation campaigns stop; watershed rehabilitation structures crumble. Forests are cut to sustain conflict economies, while overgrazing and unregulated cultivation spread across fragile slopes. Every moment of unrest adds more sediment to the Blue Nile, filling reservoirs downstream and diminishing the life span of multi-billion-dollar infrastructures, including Egypt’s own Aswan High Dam.

In this sense, the Blue Nile is a barometer of Ethiopia’s peace. Lake Tana’s tributaries Megech, Gumara, Rib, and Gilgel Abay once supported vibrant ecosystems and predictable flows. But when peace falters, these watersheds suffer from unchecked erosion and declining water retention capacity. Sediment builds at the lake’s outlet, the very birthplace of the Blue Nile, making its flow increasingly erratic. Seasonal floods intensify, dry season flows weaken, and the delicate balance that once sustained agriculture and biodiversity deteriorates. The health of Lake Tana is thus inseparable from the peace of the communities that surround it.

Peace is also the enabling condition for science and innovation. Hydrology and watershed management depend on long-term, consistent observation a process impossible amid violence and instability. Without peace, researchers cannot collect data, environmental institutions lose continuity, and local knowledge networks disintegrate. The consequence is a generation of reactive, short-term responses to environmental crises instead of the planned, evidence-based management that sustainable development requires.

Conversely, when Ethiopia enjoys stability, its watersheds become engines of resilience. Peace allows afforestation projects to thrive, soil conservation to be maintained, and communities to invest in their shared ecological future. The government and academic institutions can carry out long-term watershed studies, refine hydrological models, and implement coordinated management programs across the Blue Nile Basin. In peaceful conditions, the landscape heals gullies close, vegetation returns, infiltration improves, and the hydrological regime stabilizes. The river becomes cleaner, slower, and more predictable.

Egypt, Sudan, and the wider Nile Basin stand to benefit more from a peaceful and prosperous Ethiopia than from an unstable one. Hydrological security cannot be achieved through dominance, coercion, or external manipulation. It can only be built upon mutual respect, shared development, and environmental cooperation. Egypt’s century-long fixation on controlling the Nile has ignored this basic ecological truth. By undermining the peace and progress of the Ethiopian highlands, Cairo has indirectly endangered the very river it seeks to protect.

Peace, therefore, is the most powerful form of watershed management. It is the silent infrastructure upon which all dams, canals, and irrigation systems depend. A single decade of peace can accomplish more for the Nile’s sustainability than decades of engineering alone. The GERD, remarkable as it is, cannot fulfill its full potential if the highlands that feed it continue to erode through neglect born of instability.

The lesson is clear: to secure the future of the Blue Nile, Ethiopia must secure its peace and Egypt must support, not sabotage, that peace. Hydro politics must evolve beyond zero-sum thinking and embrace ecological interdependence as the foundation of cooperation. The Blue Nile’s flow begins not in its channel but in the calm of its watersheds. Peace is, and will always remain, the headwater of the Nile.

Sisay Alemayehu is a water engineer by profession.

Contributed by Sisay Alemayehu (Eng.)

With most students unable to pass the national exams, Ethiopia faces the danger of losing a generation’s potential. Establishing job centres could provide the crucial link between schooling and the labour market.

The release of the latest Ethiopian national secondary school leaving examination results sent shockwaves across the nation. Once again, more than 90 percent of students failed to achieve a passing grade. For families, this was heartbreaking. For the nation, the consequences are profound. At stake is the fate of a generation and the prospects of Ethiopia’s economic transformation.

This crisis is not simply about education standards. It reflects a deeper disconnect between the output of schools, the capacity of universities, and the limited absorption power of the labour market. Unless addressed, this gap will undermine our growth ambitions and risk turning our youth bulge into a liability rather than an asset.

A Nation of Youth, but Few Pathways

Ethiopia is one of Africa’s youngest nations, with more than 70 percent of its population under the age of 30. Every year, hundreds of thousands of students complete secondary school. Yet universities cannot absorb them all. Those who fail the national exam are effectively shut out of higher education, with few alternative options.

The result is a growing pool of young people who are neither continuing in school nor employed. For them, a single exam failure becomes a life-defining barrier. The economic cost is immense: a generation left idle instead of contributing to national productivity. The social cost is just as grave, as frustration, disillusionment, and migration pressures mount.

Job Centres: A Practical Bridge

Ethiopia urgently needs a new institutional bridge between education and employment. One such mechanism is the establishment of job centres—accessible hubs that connect young people to real labour market opportunities.

Job centres would provide career guidance and profiling to help young people identify realistic pathways, offer real-time job-matching services with employers in both the private and public sectors, and deliver short, demand-driven training tied to growing industries such as construction, ICT, logistics, tourism, and agribusiness.

They would also facilitate apprenticeships and internships to give practical, on-the-job experience while supporting entrepreneurship through mentoring, business training, and links to finance. Instead of letting exam “failures” drift into unemployment, job centres would ensure every young Ethiopian has a second chance.

Instead of letting exam “failures” drift into unemployment, job centres would ensure every young Ethiopian has a second chance.

I speak from personal experience. After finishing college in the United Kingdom, I found myself uncertain about the next step. The Jobcentre Plus became a lifeline: it offered guidance on how to present my skills, connected me to employers, and pointed me towards short training opportunities that boosted my employability. That early support helped me transition from education into the world of work with confidence. It showed me that when well designed, job centres can give young people not only access to jobs but also a sense of direction and dignity.

Learning from Europe

Other nations have faced similar challenges and responded with structured solutions, and Europe offers some of the most relevant models.

In the United Kingdom, Jobcentre Plus goes beyond listing vacancies by actively engaging employers, running work trials, and connecting youth to apprenticeships with a focus on getting young people into work quickly. France, through its 2024 creation of France Travail, consolidated fragmented agencies into a unified “one-stop” system integrating employment, training, and social services so that no one—whether a university graduate or a school dropout—is left behind.

Denmark’s municipal job centres embody the “flexicurity” approach, combining flexible labour markets with strong social support and active measures, profiling youth early and guiding them swiftly into jobs or training. Sweden contracts NGOs and private firms to deliver job-placement services, paying them based on successful outcomes to ensure efficiency and innovation, particularly for harder-to-reach groups.

And at the EU level, the Youth Guarantee pioneered a bold commitment that every young person under 30 should be offered a job, apprenticeship, or training within four months of leaving school—an approach that has significantly reduced youth unemployment in countries like Ireland and Spain.

These lessons show that job centres, when designed well, are not mere bureaucracies but vital public institutions that shape national development.

Why Ethiopia Must Act Now

The government’s Homegrown Economic Reform Agenda (HGER) aims to modernize the economy, attract investment, and create millions of jobs, but these reforms will stall unless Ethiopia develops clear human-capital pathways for its youth. Job centres can absorb the shock of exam failures by offering structured alternatives, align skills with market demand to ensure training leads to real employment, support industrialization by producing job-ready workers for priority sectors, and reduce instability by giving frustrated young people a sense of direction and opportunity.

Imagine an Ethiopia where, within four months of leaving school, every young person is guaranteed either a job, an apprenticeship, or a training opportunity. Such a commitment would turn failure into resilience, and despair into hope.

Building the Ethiopian Model

To succeed, Ethiopia’s job centres must reflect local realities. This means integrating and co-locating them with existing TVET colleges, municipal service centres, or industrial parks to minimize costs; adopting a digital-first approach by building a multilingual portal in Amharic, Afaan Oromoo, Tigrigna and English for job matching, applications and training offers; and forging employer compacts in high-growth sectors to guarantee pipelines of vacancies linked to tailored training. It also calls for a youth employment guarantee that no young person remains idle for more than four months after leaving school, while engaging NGOs, training providers and development partners through outcome-based public–private partnerships to deliver specialized services. Finally, robust data systems must track job-placement rates, employer satisfaction and retention to ensure public resources are used effectively.

A Call to Action

The exam crisis is a warning bell. Ethiopia cannot allow a single test to condemn an entire generation to unemployment. The choice is stark: either waste the potential of millions of young people or create new institutions that unlock their contributions.

Establishing a national network of job centres, rooted in Ethiopian realities but inspired by international best practice, is one of the most practical and urgent steps the country can take. If designed with ambition and backed by political will, job centres could transform Ethiopia’s youth bulge into a demographic dividend.

The national exam results have laid bare the cost of inaction. Now is the time for bold, decisive leadership. Ethiopia’s future depends on whether we turn today’s failures into tomorrow’s opportunities.

Assefa Sumoro is a : (The opinions expressed in this article do not reflect the views or positions of the institution with which I am affiliated.)

Contributed by Assefa Sumoro

It has been more than two weeks since leaders gathered in Tianjin for the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) summit. At first glance, it might have seemed like another diplomatic ritual. Yet the outcomes and debates it generated are still reverberating across global trade and geopolitics. The timing was not accidental. Renewed U.S. tariffs have unsettled exporters, supply chains remain fragile, and great power rivalry is hardening. Against this backdrop, the SCO’s deliberations revealed not unity, but a struggle to navigate an unpredictable world.

India’s Tactical Calculations

For India, the urgency was evident. New U.S. tariffs on pharmaceuticals, textiles and machinery exposed the danger of depending too heavily on Western markets. Prime Minister Narendra Modi seized the opportunity to show that India has options. By engaging SCO partners, New Delhi is seeking alternative corridors, new investment partnerships and a larger role in a multipolar system.

But contradictions abound. India’s border disputes with China remain unresolved. Its rivalry with Beijing for regional influence continues to sharpen. The SCO may offer India tactical breathing space, but it cannot resolve strategic mistrust. What Tianjin revealed is that India is not building new alliances so much as hedging its vulnerabilities.

China’s Institutional Engineering

China, meanwhile, entered Tianjin under strain. The return of Trump to the White House has reignited tariff wars, revived technology restrictions, and accelerated the rhetoric of decoupling. Beijing knows that its export-driven economy is deeply exposed to U.S. pressure. Its response was to build institutional hedges that reduce dependence on Western systems.

At the summit, China proposed the establishment of an SCO development bank, advanced shared energy platforms, and expanded access to the BeiDou satellite system. More than 1.4 billion dollars in loans were pledged to SCO partners. These moves signal Beijing’s determination to cultivate resilience, export its own institutional influence, and create alternative trade and financial frameworks.

Yet ambition collides with reality. SCO members are a heterogeneous mix with diverging interests. Historical mistrust and uneven levels of development mean that China’s institutional blueprints may not automatically translate into durable cooperation. The summit showed Beijing’s intent, but it also revealed the structural limits of regional leadership.

Russia’s Dual-Track Strategy

Russia’s presence in Tianjin added weight and nuance. Only days earlier, President Vladimir Putin met Trump in Alaska for discussions that hinted at cautious progress on Ukraine. In Tianjin, he used this momentum to project Moscow as both mediator and power broker.

Russia is pursuing a dual-track strategy. On one hand, it engages directly with Washington to reduce its isolation. On the other, it deepens its role in Eurasian institutions like the SCO to dilute American dominance. This balancing act reflects Moscow’s determination to remain relevant in spite of sanctions and conflict. It also underscores how bilateral diplomacy and multilateral positioning increasingly reinforce one another.

The Tianjin Declaration: Symbolism and Substance

The summit concluded with the Tianjin Declaration. It pledged cooperation against terrorism, endorsed India’s “One Earth, One Family, One Future” vision, and floated proposals for joint bonds and shared investment platforms. Its language was ambitious, but the deeper message was pragmatic.

The declaration symbolized a collective effort to reduce exposure to U.S. unilateralism. For SCO members, tariffs, sanctions and political shocks are no longer episodic disruptions. They have become the normal condition of global trade. By sketching institutional buffers, the declaration was less about immediate solutions and more about shaping a future where resilience matters as much as growth.

Global Trade in Transition

For the global economy, the implications are far-reaching. Supply chains that once prioritized speed and efficiency now require resilience and redundancy. Indian exporters are rethinking their dependence on the U.S. market. Chinese firms are relocating production to friendlier jurisdictions. Russian commodity suppliers are searching for financial networks that bypass Western sanctions.

Multinational corporations must now pay close attention to alternative financial infrastructures that are gaining traction. Local currency settlements, regional payment systems and new investment frameworks may still be experimental, but they are no longer peripheral. The SCO has become a laboratory for these alternatives, however imperfect its mechanisms may be.

Africa’s Position in a Fragmenting World

The Tianjin summit also matters for Africa. Ethiopia’s accession to BRICS already places it in the orbit of multipolar financial debates. Tianjin made clear that the global economy is fragmenting into blocs that are building their own trade corridors and financial safety nets.

For Ethiopia, this is both an opportunity and a challenge. With foreign exchange shortages, heavy debt burdens and an undiversified export base, the country cannot afford to rely solely on traditional partners. At the same time, overcommitting to one camp could be risky. Strategic diversification is not a luxury but a necessity. Ethiopia must learn to engage with both Western institutions and emerging frameworks led by China, India and Russia.

The experiments tested at Tianjin offer practical lessons. If SCO members develop viable joint financial mechanisms or alternative payment systems, these could influence how Ethiopia negotiates loans, manages currency risks and pursues regional integration. The question is whether Ethiopian policymakers are ready to draw insights from these evolving architectures.

A World of Navigation, Not Harmony

Ultimately, Tianjin was less about harmony than about navigation. India cooperated with China for tactical reasons even as rivalry persisted. Russia projected influence through both bilateral and multilateral channels. China experimented with institutional engineering while struggling against mistrust. Each player was improvising, seeking to manage volatility rather than eliminate it.

The lesson two weeks on is clear. Multipolarity is no longer a future prospect but a present condition. Volatility is structural. Alliances are transactional. Resilience has overtaken efficiency as the new measure of success.

For Ethiopia and other African economies, adapting to this fractured order is not optional. The challenge is how quickly they can recognize that survival in today’s global economy requires agility, foresight and the courage to learn from shifting alignments.

Contributed by Mikiyas Mulugeta (PhD) 

On September 7, 2025, history will be made in Addis Ababa as Ethiopia hosts the first in-person Africa-CARICOM Summit, a meeting that not only represents a diplomatic milestone but a profound historical convergence. With the theme, “Transcontinental Partnership in Pursuit of Reparatory Justice for Africans and People of African Descent through Reparations,” the Second Africa-CARICOM Summit signals a renewed urgency for African and Caribbean nations to move from shared memory to shared mission.

For the Caribbean, Ethiopia is not just another African country. It is the eternal symbol of African resilience and sovereignty. The memory of Ethiopia’s triumph over colonialism at the Battle of Adwa in 1896 echoed far beyond Africa’s borders, igniting a spark of pride in communities of African descent across the world and especially in the Caribbean. That spark would later find voice in the Pan-Africanism of Marcus Garvey, who pointed to Ethiopia as a land of dignity and hope.

Ethiopia became a revered figure in the Caribbean, not only in Rastafarian spiritual traditions but also in broader cultural, political, and philosophical circles. Ethiopia thus became a spiritual homeland not through conquest or migration, but through the powerful idea of shared African identity, struggle, and redemption.

Today, that emotional and cultural connection is evolving into something more structured a formal, multi-dimensional partnership. As leaders from the African Union and CARICOM converge in Addis Ababa, they are set to expand cooperation in areas that include reparative justice, trade, climate resilience, cultural exchange, digital innovation, and public health. This is no longer a symbolic bond, it is a strategic alliance, being built deliberately and ambitiously.

The Summit is expected to be co-chaired by Jamaica and Angolan as Chairs of the CARICOM community and African Union respectively. Hosted by Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, the event builds on prior commitments made during high-level African Union meetings and follows significant diplomatic momentum over the last four years, including growing interactions between CARICOM heads and African leaders, and key visits across both regions.

A major emphasis of the Summit is on reparatory justice a shared call from both regions for redress for the transatlantic slave trade and colonialism. The alignment of the African Union’s 2025 theme on reparations with CARICOM’s long-standing Ten-Point Plan for Reparatory Justice offers a powerful platform for global advocacy. The leaders are expected to push for the restitution of cultural heritage, the return of stolen artifacts, and educational and development programs that address the enduring legacies of slavery and systemic racism.

But the Summit will also be forward looking. There is recognition that despite cultural closeness, trade between Africa and CARICOM has remained underdeveloped, less than 3% of total exports between the regions. That is set to change. Leaders will explore frameworks for investment, improve transportation links including direct air routes, and promote agreements on taxation and business facilitation. Technological innovation, artificial intelligence, and knowledge-sharing will also be prioritized, particularly in agriculture, food security, and health research.

Ethiopia, as host, is well-positioned to lead this transformation. With its dynamic diplomatic tradition, it is the home of the African Union, and increasingly a nucleus of multilateral engagement across the continent. Ethiopia’s symbolic value to the Caribbean is now matched by its strategic importance in shaping the Africa-Diaspora relationship for the 21st century.

This Summit is also about healing, not only in terms of historical justice, but in real-world solutions to challenges such as climate change, pandemics, and persistent inequality. The Caribbean and African regions share vulnerability to global shocks, but they also share a growing confidence that, through unity, they can be architects of their own futures.

As this gathering unfolds in the land of Adwa in the city of Addis Ababa, where the first Pan- African resolutions were forged the message is clear: this is not just a diplomatic meeting. It is a reconnection of family, a realignment of history, and the renewal of a long-interrupted journey toward dignity, prosperity, and global influence for all people of African descent.

The time has come, and Ethiopia proudly stands at the heart of it.

Ambassador Nebiyu Tedla Negash is the Director General of the Public Diplomacy Directorate
General at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia.

For years, the GERD has been a flashpoint, with Ethiopia viewing it as a symbol of national development and a crucial step towards electrifying its vast population, while Egypt considers it an existential threat to its water security, heavily reliant as it is on the Nile’s waters. Now, with the dam physically complete, the abstract concerns have materialized, raising the specter of direct confrontation.

One of the underlying forces exacerbating this tension is the growing normalization of preemptive action in global affairs. Increasingly, states have justified military interventions on the grounds of perceived threats or national interest, often bypassing international norms and legal frameworks. In such a climate, Egypt—long vocal about its “existential” concerns—may feel emboldened to contemplate actions it once considered beyond the pale.

This drift toward confrontation is further intensified by a securitization and survival narrative. Both Egypt and Ethiopia frame the GERD as a matter of national survival. For Addis Ababa, the project is more than a dam—it symbolizes sovereignty, economic emancipation, and the right to harness natural resources. For Cairo, any disruption in Nile flow threatens the very foundation of its agricultural and industrial life. When both sides equate compromise with existential risk, the space for diplomatic solutions narrows dramatically.

Adding to the volatility is a growing sense of distraction and fatigue among global powers. With the world’s attention fragmented by wars, inflation, climate crises, and ideological polarization, the bandwidth to monitor, mediate, or de-escalate regional disputes has shrunk. This erosion of international oversight—what might be called “global fatigue”—creates a dangerous vacuum. In such an environment, the risk of miscalculation or escalation by Nile Basin states increases significantly.

Paradoxically, this is compounded by a kind of regional war fatigue. Years of conflict across the Horn of Africa and the broader Middle East may have numbed decision-makers to the dangers of yet another confrontation. Worse, it may foster the belief that one more flash of violence will not provoke serious international backlash. If policymakers perceive a muted global reaction as likely, the threshold for initiating hostilities could lower.

Lastly, there is a psychological dimension to consider—one rooted in the symbolism of the GERD itself. Ethiopia has invested not just resources but national pride in the dam. Egypt might calculate that a limited military strike, timed to disrupt or damage the GERD now that it is operational, could deliver a psychological blow. Such an act could be intended less to disable the dam than to send a chilling message: large projects on the Nile will be met with force. In essence, it would be a bid to break morale and discourage similar ambitions in the future.

International Law and the Red Line

It is crucial to remember that attacking dams is heavily restricted under international humanitarian law. Article 56 of the 1977 Protocol I to the Geneva Conventions classifies dams as “installations containing dangerous forces” and prohibits attacks on them if such actions “may cause the release of dangerous forces from the works or installations and consequent severe losses among the civilian population.” Any such attack would constitute a grave breach of international law, inviting severe condemnation and potential repercussions.

The Path Forward

Despite the completion of the GERD, diplomatic channels remain essential. Ethiopia has extended an invitation to Egypt and Sudan for the inauguration, reiterating that the dam is a “shared opportunity” and not a threat. Egypt, however, has expressed strong rejection of what it deems “unilateral” moves by Ethiopia. The current impasse, coupled with the aforementioned regional and international dynamics, demands urgent and sincere engagement.

The coming months will test the resolve and wisdom of leaders in Cairo and Addis Ababa. The choice is stark. Continuing on a path of escalation that risks catastrophic conflict, or finding a mutually agreeable framework for cooperation that respects the developmental aspirations of all Nile Basin countries while safeguarding the water security needs of downstream nations. The world watches anxiously.

Kassahun Addis  is a long-time observer of Horn of Africa and Northeast African politics, geopolitics, and society.

Contributed by Kassahun Addis

Through this book, Kebede advocated for Ethiopia to draw lessons from Japan’s experience, emphasizing the need to modernize without compromising national  identity and cultural heritage.

Despite the pivotal role Kebede played in bridging Ethiopia and Japan academically and culturally, there remains a notable lack of comprehensive research on his contributions and the broader implications of his work. While Ethiopian scholars have occasionally highlighted Kebede’s intellectual legacy, much of the existing literature focuses narrowly on his contributions to Ethiopian nationalism and literary achievements, without exploring the depth of his international influence. Similarly, in Japanese academic circles, the emphasis on Ethio-Japan relations often centers on contemporary economic and diplomatic partnerships, with little attention paid to historical figures like Kebede who were instrumental in shaping these ties.

Kebede perceived Japan’s ability to modernize rapidly while maintaining its cultural heritage as a model that Ethiopia could emulate. His work not only celebrated Japan’s achievements but also critiqued the socio-economic and political stagnation in Ethiopia, urging his compatriots to learn from Japan’s experience. The book became a cornerstone of Ethiopia’s intellectual discourse on modernization, influencing prominent figures in politics and academia.

Concurrently, Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed was promoting the indigenous concept of medemer, an Amharic term signifying a philosophy of compromise and reconciliation. This concept, closely aligned with Japanese political traditions, presents a valuable framework for Ethiopia, and potentially other nations, during periods of instability.

Ethiopia is currently facing multiple interconnected crises. A significant humanitarian crisis persists in the Tigray region, marked by ongoing conflict and displacement, with the potential for further escalation due to unresolved political tensions and the involvement of neighboring Eritrea. Simultaneously, the Amhara region is grappling with an ongoing civil war between federal forces and the Fano militia, leading to displacement and human rights violations. These conflicts, along with drought, floods, and disease outbreaks, are exacerbating food insecurity and hindering humanitarian access.

Based on Japan’s conflict resolution strategies, several key insights can be gleaned to facilitate Ethiopia’s return to stability. To ensure the efficacy of these strategies, Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed must leverage his “medemer” philosophy and implement immediate measures to de-escalate the situation.

First, in Japan, politics is not seen as a zero-sum game within the country’s dominant Liberal Democratic Party. It is based on the belief that an effective politician is one who can successfully compromise in the face of conflicting positions. The best way to do so is to ensure that today’s loser can be tomorrow’s winner. There is no need to try to usurp power by all means, or cling to it until removed by force.

 Within the Ethiopian political landscape, an unwritten convention dictates that defeat in a political competition, frequently characterized by violence and potential fatalities, typically signifies the termination of the individual’s political trajectory, and potentially their life. In the context of Ethiopian political contests, the prevailing options are essentially binary: achieve victory and eliminate the adversary, or experience defeat and face elimination.

Another point of divergence pertains to what I term “political recycling,” a practice prevalent among Japanese officials. This involves re-engaging senior politicians in public service following the conclusion of their terms. The underlying principle suggests that a change in leadership does not necessitate a complete overhaul of the existing system; rather, any transition should be gradual, frequently incorporating elements of continuity between the outgoing and incoming administrations.

In Japan, the political practice of recycling has demonstrably fostered a positive-sum political environment, encouraging political actors to exhibit sportsmanship in both victory and defeat, and ultimately promoting cooperation. Conversely, political recycling is largely absent in Ethiopia. Those who attain political power in Ethiopia often perceive it as their sole opportunity and are inclined to maintain it by any means necessary. The pertinent inquiry now is whether Ethiopia’s leaders are evolving into a conventional Ethiopian political figure.

Furthermore, the Japanese concept of a “victor without vanquished” is noteworthy. During the 1990s, Japan experienced nine changes in prime ministers. Despite this frequent turnover, the political transitions remained peaceful, largely due to the understanding that both the winning and losing parties could continue to coexist. It is significant that Japan currently has eleven former prime ministers, who are aging gracefully, while remaining available for future service.

The win-win approach to politics in Japan is rooted in the nation’s history. In 1877, a regional lord named Saigo Takamori rose up against the Meiji reformers in a rebellion that ultimately claimed thousands of Japanese lives. The rebellion itself grew out of the disaffection of those members of the elite samurai class whose influence was declining as the result of the reforms. After the conflict ended, Takamori came to be described by the victorious reformers as a “misguided patriot,” and years later became a popular hero.

The reformers did not doubt the genuineness of Takamori’s concerns for the welfare of his fellow samurai, even though his vision of how it was to be achieved differed from theirs. In fact, a statue was subsequently erected in 1898 depicting Takamori, which stands to this day in Tokyo’s Ueno Park. In a sense, Takamori may be more remembered in Japan today than the Meiji reformers themselves. He was also the inspiration behind the 2003 popular American film, The Last Samurai.

While significant political differences are present in modern Japan, they do not result in irreconcilable conflict. The Japanese have demonstrated an ability to adapt and compromise, adjusting their stances as necessary.

In the Meiji period, the Japanese leaders first defined their goal as the building of a rich country and strong army and went on to pursue it, under a slogan that bears a striking resemblance to medemer, which likewise pulls divergent systems or values to create a synthesis, like what the Kenyan scholar Ali Mazrui called Africa’s triple heritage: Islam, Christianity, and indigenous values.

The establishment of a peaceful political culture is recognized as a gradual process. Despite this, the current situation in Ethiopia, where the nation could potentially leverage its “medemer” philosophy to navigate political transitions akin to Japan’s approach, is concerning. This raises the question of whether the architect of “medemer” is receiving suboptimal counsel or has altered their perspective on the matter.

The principles of medemer demonstrate a clear alignment with the Japanese approach to conflict resolution. Should Abiy genuinely embrace these principles, it could potentially pave the way for ending the ongoing violence in Ethiopia and guide the nation towards a federal and democratic framework that embraces its diverse ethnic composition.

It is conceivable that a path toward national recovery could be charted, contingent upon a return to the principles of medemer, a sincere apology to the Ethiopian populace for any unforeseen outcomes stemming from past decisions, and a reconciliation with international partners whose support has been diminished. Furthermore, a strategic shift away from the current trajectory is essential.

Should Prime Minister Abiy shift his focus toward implementing the principles of “medemer” through tangible actions, he is likely to garner significant support and empathy for the challenges he faces in navigating the complexities of the Ethiopian landscape. Critically, this shift would represent a significant stride toward resolving the civil conflict, which is currently straining alliances and contributing to national fragmentation.

(Ameha  Hailemairam holds a Master of Arts in Economics from Indira Ghandi National Open University, with a vast experience in the banking sector and as a financial analyst. He previously held the position of Deputy General Manager within the Ethiopian office of a Japanese conglomerate.)

Contributed by Ameha Hailemairam

These links have helped foster a closer relationship between BRICS+ members and African countries over the last two decades. For the past 15 years, China has been Africa’s largest trading partner, with annual turnover now estimated at $295 billion. The continent’s trade with other BRICS+ members has also increased, reaching $83 billion with India in 2024, and more than $21 billion with Brazil in 2023.

These relationships have pushed many African countries toward industrialization. But only South Africa, Egypt, and Morocco have developed any significant amount of industrial power. For the rest of the continent, three major obstacles stand in the way: a huge energy gap, unsustainable debt burdens, and worsening climate change. To overcome these barriers, Africa must develop a strategic partnership with the BRICS+. This partnership would yield other mutually beneficial results, including economic growth and shared prosperity.

The timing is right. More than ever before, Africa is facing growth pressures as evidenced by its exploding working-age population. The BRICS+ bloc is also at a crucial point as it seeks to assert itself on the world stage, develop a new form of multilateralism based on mutualism, expand the New Development Bank, and admit more members. The group is attempting to do all this while navigating delicate relations with the United States.

A strategic partnership with Africa would allow the BRICS+ bloc to advance its vision for a world where all countries are respected and work together to solve common problems and pursue green development. But to drive growth, its members will need to become co-investors, rather than merely creditors. They must also help African countries address the obstacles to their development, particularly the energy and debt crises.

To that end, China, one of the most powerful BRICS+ members and the world’s clean-energy leader, could help Africa harness its abundant renewable-energy potential. The continent is home to 60% of the best solar resources globally, but only 1% of installed solar capacity. By contrast, 64% of all renewable-energy capacity added last year was installed in China, which accounts for 60% of the world’s production capacity in green-tech sectors and dominates solar supply chains. As part of a strategic partnership with Africa, China and other BRICS+ countries could co-establish clean-tech manufacturing and assembly plants on the continent. This would create new markets for renewables while also lowering energy costs for Africans.

There is also the question of debt relief. Sovereign-debt restructurings have been inefficient and ineffective because powerful bilateral and multilateral creditors can’t agree on how to handle them. Improving these processes requires political goodwill. China has shown that this is possible by forgiving $3.4 billion in African debt, as well as 23 interest-free loans for 17 African countries.

Moreover, BRICS+ countries could oversee the creation of a multilateral framework, tailored to low-income countries, that would aim to convene all creditor classes, including private bondholders and multilateral development banks. This would also facilitate market creation and foster geopolitical ties between the bloc’s members and African countries – the foundations of a prosperous future for all.

With the right strategic partners, Africa could become very wealthy in a short period of time. The BRICS+ bloc must begin laying the groundwork for this geopolitical and economic alliance with the continent at its upcoming summit in Rio de Janeiro. Brazil, as the current president, and South Africa, as the group’s first African member, must ensure that an African partnership is at the top of the agenda.

From a practical point of view, deepening cooperation with African countries would create future economic benefits for BRICS+ members. But perhaps more importantly, it would signal the group’s willingness to provide equitable opportunities to the broader Global South.

(Ameenah Gurib-Fakim, the first female president of Mauritius, is a member of the African Leaders Debt Relief Initiative.)

Contributed by Ameenah Gurib-Fakim

For China, it represents an opportunity to project power 6,000 kilometres from its borders and test the People’s Liberation Army Air Force in a new operational environment.

For Egypt, the exercise offers a chance to benchmark its air force against a rising global power and enhance its strategic autonomy by diversifying its defence partnerships beyond the US. The exercises included mission planning, air combat simulations, and training in areas like aerial refuelling and battlefield search and rescue. These activities not only fostered interoperability but also allowed both nations to exchange tactical expertise.

Challenging US military prestige

The US has long viewed Egypt as a cornerstone of its Middle East and North African strategy. This was cemented by the 1979 Camp David Accords and sustained through approximately £1 billion in annual military aid. This money has equipped Egypt with F-16 fighters, Apache helicopters, and M1 Abrams tanks, reinforcing US military prestige in the region by showcasing its ability to supply cutting-edge technology to key allies. However, restrictions on advanced weaponry, such as the AIM-120 AMRAAM missiles for Egypt’s F-16s or the MBDA Meteor missiles for its Rafales fighter jets, have frustrated Cairo.

These restrictions stem from the US foreign policy and legal commitments, which prioritise Israel’s security by ensuring its technological and military superiority over neighbouring states. This has annoyed Cairo. “Civilization Eagle 2025” capitalises on this discontent, positioning China as a viable alternative partner.

The exercise sends a clear message to Washington: Egypt is diversifying its alliances and is not beholden to US patronage. As one op-ed in Daily News Egypt stated, the drills were “a declaration of sovereignty,” signalling Cairo’s refusal to remain a “second-tier ally.” By hosting Chinese warplanes near the Israeli border, approximately 100 kilometres west of the Gulf of Suez, Egypt underscores its strategic flexibility.

China’s approach contrasts sharply with US policy. Unlike Washington, which often ties arms sales to human rights or political reforms, Beijing offers advanced systems at lower costs with fewer conditions. This “soft military power” resonates with Egypt, which is seeking to modernise its air force while navigating regional instability in Sudan, Libya, and the Red Sea.

The exercise also highlights China’s growing ability to operate in North Africa, a region where the US has scaled back its presence. There are ongoing discussions to subordinate the US Africa Command to the US European Command under the Trump administration.

Geopolitical implications

“Civilization Eagle 2025” is emblematic of a shifting geopolitical landscape in North Africa. China’s expanding military footprint, bolstered by its Belt and Road Initiative and a naval base in Djibouti, positions it as a counterweight to US influence. Egypt’s strategic location, with access to the Mediterranean, Red Sea, and Suez Canal, makes it an ideal partner for Beijing to secure maritime routes critical to its energy imports. This hot on the heels of  Chinese President Xi Jinping’s pledge in September 2024 to increase China’s military support for the African continent with funding amounting to approximately £38 billion over the next three years.

For the US, the exercise raises concerns about eroding influence among traditional allies. Egypt’s frustration with US restrictions, coupled with Washington’s inward focus under President Trump, creates a vacuum that China is eager to fill. The presence of Chinese jets buzzing the pyramids, as noted in social media posts, is a potent symbol of Beijing’s inroads into a US-aligned nation.

Limitations and risks

Despite its significance, “Civilization Eagle 2025” has limitations. China’s military technology, while advanced, remains unproven in combat, unlike US systems that have been tested in conflicts like Iraq and Afghanistan. Egyptian pilots, accustomed to Western platforms, may find integration with Chinese systems challenging, particularly given differences in training and maintenance protocols. Egypt is unlikely to abandon its US partnership entirely, given the scale of American military aid per year and the strategic importance of the Camp David framework.

The exercise also carries risks for both nations. For Egypt, deepening ties with China could strain relations with the US, potentially jeopardising military aid. For China, overextending its military presence in a volatile region risks entanglement in local conflicts, a departure from its traditionally cautious Middle East policy. The opacity surrounding the exercise, typical of Chinese military engagements, may also fuel speculation and mistrust among regional actors like Israel and Saudi Arabia.

Going forward

The “Civilization Eagle 2025” exercise sets a precedent for deeper China-Egypt military cooperation and signals a long-term challenge to US dominance in North Africa. For China, the successful execution of the drills validates its ability to project air power globally, likely encouraging further joint exercises with other African and Middle Eastern nations. This could lead to an expansion of China’s defence exports. Beijing’s condition-free approach to arms sales and military partnerships will continue to appeal to nations frustrated by US restrictions, potentially reshaping defence markets in the region.

For Egypt, the exercise strengthens its leverage in negotiations with the US, signalling that Cairo has alternatives if Washington continues to impose limits on advanced weaponry. This could pressure the US to relax restrictions or offer more advanced systems, such as fifth-generation fighters, to maintain its influence.

Regionally, the exercise may prompt other North African states to explore similar partnerships with China, particularly those with strained US ties, such as Algeria. This could lead to a broader Chinese military presence, potentially including joint exercises or basing rights, challenging NATO and US operations in the Mediterranean and Red Sea.

Globally, “Civilization Eagle 2025” underscores the emergence of a multipolar security order. As China expands its military diplomacy, it will increasingly compete with the US for influence in strategic regions like North Africa. The US may respond by reinforcing its commitments to allies like Egypt through increased aid or fewer restrictions, but its inward focus under President Trump and budget constraints could limit its ability to counter China’s agile diplomacy. Ultimately, the exercise marks a shift toward a more contested North Africa, where China’s pragmatic partnerships challenge the US’s traditional hegemony, setting the stage for a complex and dynamic geopolitical rivalry.

(This article first appeared on Africa at LSE)

Paa Kwesi Wolseley Prah is a Postdoctoral Fellow, Dublin City University, Ireland. Christian Kaunert is Professor of International Security, Dublin City University and Professor of Policing and Security, University of South Wales

Contributed by Paa Kwesi Wolseley & Christian Kaunert