The little-known Ethiopian National Security Council (ENSC) extolled the achievements of the government in an anodyne statement in issued this week following one of the meetings it holds at irregular intervals. Chaired by Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed (PhD), the Council said its assessment of Ethiopia’s national, regional and global landscape revealed that the country had accomplished significant progress in wide-ranging spheres despite multi-faceted challenges. It claimed Ethiopia was “accelerating its journey toward peace and prosperity” and went on to assert that efforts to safeguard the national interest were beginning to bear fruit. It added the broad reforms introduced by the government have yielded concrete results in terms of rising above political, economic, social, and diplomatic challenges, enhancing the nation’s international standing. The Council laid particular emphasis on “consistent improvements in bringing about peace” to conflict-ridden areas, singling out the peace agreement that ended the Tigray civil war as well as the “progress” being witnessed in the Amhara and Oromia regions in spite of the “challenges posed by groups intent on pursuing their agenda through violence”.
Ethiopia stands at a crossroads, grappling with a profound security crisis that poses significant threats not only to its stability but also to the wider Horn of Africa region finds at a critical juncture in its long history. The crisis is primarily attributable to the unending cycle of conflict and instability that has gripped it since Prime Minister Abiy assumed office some seven years ago. While the Pretoria Agreement of November 2022 resulted in a fragile truce that ended the two-year civil war in Tigray, violence is raging elsewhere, particularly in the Amhara and Oromia regions, where mass killings, forced displacement, abductions and human rights abuses continue to be perpetrated by all sides. Naturally, defenseless citizens bear the brunt of these conflicts. Although the ENSC paints a rather rosy picture of the security situation in Ethiopia, the facts on the ground belie its narrative. This deflection only serves to exacerbate the crisis and puts into question the government’s commitment to tackle it with the urgency and solemnity it requires.
The Council‘s statement also downplayed the economic impacts of the security crisis. Contrary to its assertion that Ethiopia’s economy is on the right track, the truth is it faces significant headwinds due to the crisis. Infrastructure has been destroyed and investor confidence has been shaken. The government’s huge spending to quell insurgencies has been a stress on public finances. Businesses small and large are struggling to survive and millions of Ethiopians are facing food insecurity due to the conflict and economic instability. In spite of these alarming trends, the government has been slow to implement meaningful reforms, instead often preferring to undertake superficial measures and empty promises that barely tackle the root causes of the crisis.
The prevailing security crisis has further driven the curtailment of basic freedoms enshrined in the constitution, constricting the shrinking space for dissent. The raft of reforms his administration implemented early on during Prime Minister Abiy’s tenure has been largely rolled back. The government has increasingly relied on heavy-handed measures to intimidate anyone “daring” to express views that do not toe the official line, leading to arbitrary arrests, extrajudicial killings, and restrictions on, inter alia, freedoms of expression, assembly, and the press. This repression has in turn instigated conflicts, perpetuating a cycle of violence that fuels the security crisis.
Although the government has, albeit infrequently for too many people’s liking, owned up to the prevalence of the security crisis engulfing the country, it has been found sorely wanting when it comes to taking meaningful actions that address the root cause of the problem. One of the initiatives it touts as being instrumental to end the country’s intractable bout of violence and political instability— the ongoing national dialogue—has been criticized for its lack of genuine inclusivity and transparency. Likewise, attempts to reform the security sector and address human rights violations have been inconsistent and insufficient. What Ethiopia requires now is authentic leadership and action, not just hollow pledges. The government must start by fully acknowledging the challenges the gravity of the crisis, rather than bury its head in the sand. This necessitates a willingness to hear from a variety of perspectives, including those from opposition parties, civil society, and affected communities. It also calls for a dedication to transparency and accountability in both addressing historical injustices and implementing future reforms.
Ethiopia’s security crisis, while daunting, is not beyond Ethiopians. Nevertheless, it requires immediate, coordinated efforts from the government, civil society, and the international community. A lasting solution must address systemic failures, namely political grievances, economic disparities, and social fragmentation. If Ethiopia is to not only emerge from its current crisis but also set a precedent for resolving conflicts in multi-ethnic and mullti-cultural societies globally, it must embrace inclusive dialogue, justice, and inclusive development. The time to act is now—before further devastation undermines the future of one of Africa’s most pivotal nations.
